Climate response variable: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: - Response: ERA5 in reduced scale - Data perdiod: 1980
- 2015.
- Predictors: from CMIP6 (daily or monthly) - Predictors variables:
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl in daily
scale, clt, rsdt,rsds in monthly
scale, the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily
daylight amount in seconds.
Validation:
| Metric | cnn | lstm | xgboost | naive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −0.84 | 1.37 | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| maximum_error | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| acf_mae | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | lstm | naive | xgboost | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.76 | −1.63 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.98 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.78 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| maximum_error | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| acf_mae | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | lstm | xgboost | naive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −0.89 | 1.37 | 1.65 | 1.69 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.90 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| maximum_error | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| acf_mae | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | naive | lstm | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −4.33 | −4.51 | −4.75 | −6.88 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| maximum_error | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| acf_mae | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | xgboost | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 32.75 | 36.02 | 36.48 | 38.67 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.65 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| maximum_error | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.06 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| qqplot_mae | 1.29 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 |
| acf_mae | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | xgboost | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 33.02 | 36.67 | 37.29 | 39.36 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.65 | 0.36 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| maximum_error | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.04 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| qqplot_mae | 1.31 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.56 |
| acf_mae | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | xgboost | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 32.47 | 35.90 | 36.37 | 38.50 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.65 | 0.54 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.66 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| maximum_error | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.07 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| qqplot_mae | 1.28 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.52 |
| acf_mae | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.