Results

cesm2.ssp245

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn lstm xgboost naive
diff_of_means −0.84 1.37 1.53 1.57
ratio_of_sd 0.98 0.97 0.91 0.91
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.82 0.78 0.61 0.64
maximum_error 0.21 0.15 0.15 0.17
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.20 0.18 0.35 0.32
qqplot_mae 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.10
acf_mae 0.09 0.09 0.14 0.13
extremogram_mae 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.07

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

cesm2.ssp370

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means 0.50 0.72 0.76 −1.63
ratio_of_sd 0.96 0.91 0.90 0.98
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.78 0.64 0.61 0.82
maximum_error 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.21
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.11 0.24 0.32 0.18
qqplot_mae 0.07 0.12 0.11 0.08
acf_mae 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.08
extremogram_mae 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.02

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

cesm2.ssp585

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn lstm xgboost naive
diff_of_means −0.89 1.37 1.65 1.69
ratio_of_sd 0.97 0.96 0.89 0.90
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.83 0.79 0.61 0.64
maximum_error 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.16
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.15 0.13 0.31 0.28
qqplot_mae 0.06 0.07 0.11 0.12
acf_mae 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.11
extremogram_mae 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.07

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

ec_earth3.ssp434

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric xgboost naive lstm cnn
diff_of_means −4.33 −4.51 −4.75 −6.88
ratio_of_sd 0.97 0.99 1.03 1.05
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.64 0.66 0.80 0.85
maximum_error 0.18 0.14 0.20 0.25
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.40 0.39 0.27 0.26
qqplot_mae 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.27
acf_mae 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.10
extremogram_mae 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.09

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 32.75 36.02 36.48 38.67
ratio_of_sd 0.64 0.55 0.61 0.67
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.65 0.37 0.52 0.61
maximum_error 0.17 0.27 0.24 0.20
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.06 0.37 0.23 0.04
qqplot_mae 1.29 1.42 1.44 1.53
acf_mae 0.03 0.13 0.08 0.05
extremogram_mae 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.01

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 33.02 36.67 37.29 39.36
ratio_of_sd 0.63 0.53 0.60 0.66
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.65 0.36 0.53 0.60
maximum_error 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.23
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.04 0.32 0.20 0.10
qqplot_mae 1.31 1.45 1.47 1.56
acf_mae 0.04 0.11 0.07 0.04
extremogram_mae 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 32.47 35.90 36.37 38.50
ratio_of_sd 0.65 0.54 0.61 0.67
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.66 0.37 0.52 0.62
maximum_error 0.16 0.28 0.23 0.22
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.07 0.36 0.22 0.09
qqplot_mae 1.28 1.42 1.44 1.52
acf_mae 0.04 0.12 0.08 0.05
extremogram_mae 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.